Dana P Edelson, Matthew M Churpek, Kyle A Carey, Zhenqui Lin, Chenxi Huang, Jonathan M Siner, Jennifer Johnson, Harlan M Krumholz, Deborah J Rhodes
Importance: Early warning decision support tools to identify clinical deterioration in the hospital are widely used, but there is little information on their comparative performance.
Objective: To compare 3 proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) early warning scores and 3 publicly available simple aggregated weighted scores.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was performed at 7 hospitals in the Yale New Haven Health System. All consecutive adult medical-surgical ward hospital encounters between March 9, 2019, and November 9, 2023, were included.
Exposures: Simultaneous Epic Deterioration Index (EDI), Rothman Index (RI), eCARTv5 (eCART), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and NEWS2 scores.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical deterioration, defined as a transfer from ward to intensive care unit or death within 24 hours of an observation.
Results: Of the 362 926 patient encounters (median patient age, 64 [IQR, 47-77] years; 200 642 [55.3%] female), 16 693 (4.6%) experienced a clinical deterioration event. eCART had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at 0.895 (95% CI, 0.891-0.900), followed by NEWS2 at 0.831 (95% CI, 0.826-0.836), NEWS at 0.829 (95% CI, 0.824-0.835), RI at 0.828 (95% CI, 0.823-0.834), EDI at 0.808 (95% CI, 0.802-0.812), and MEWS at 0.757 (95% CI, 0.750-0.764). After matching scores at the moderate-risk sensitivity level for a NEWS score of 5, overall positive predictive values (PPVs) ranged from a low of 6.3% (95% CI, 6.1%-6.4%) for an EDI score of 41 to a high of 17.3% (95% CI, 16.9%-17.8%) for an eCART score of 94. Matching scores at the high-risk specificity of a NEWS score of 7 yielded overall PPVs ranging from a low of 14.5% (95% CI, 14.0%-15.2%) for an EDI score of 54 to a high of 23.3% (95% CI, 22.7%-24.2%) for an eCART score of 97. The moderate-risk thresholds provided a median of at least 20 hours of lead time for all the scores. Median lead time at the high-risk threshold was 11 (IQR, 0-69) hours for eCART, 8 (IQR, 0-63) hours for NEWS, 6 (IQR, 0-62) hours for NEWS2, 5 (IQR, 0-56) hours for MEWS, 1 (IQR, 0-39) hour for EDI, and 0 (IQR, 0-42) hours for RI.
Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of inpatient encounters, eCART outperformed the other AI and non-AI scores, identifying more deteriorating patients with fewer false alarms and sufficient time to intervene. NEWS, a non-AI, publicly available early warning score, significantly outperformed EDI. Given the wide variation in accuracy, additional transparency and oversight of early warning tools may be warranted.
