Constructing a self-consistent first-principles framework that accurately predicts the properties of electron transfer reactions through finite-temperature molecular dynamics simulations is a dream of theoretical electrochemists and physical chemists. Yet, predicting even the absolute standard hydrogen electrode potential, the most fundamental reference for electrode potentials, proves to be extremely challenging. Here, we show that a hybrid functional incorporating 25% exact exchange enables quantitative predictions when statistically accurate phase-space sampling is achieved thermodynamic integrations and thermodynamic perturbation theory calculations, utilizing machine-learned force fields and Δ-machine learning models. The application to seven redox couples, including molecules and transition metal ions, demonstrates that the hybrid functional can predict redox potentials across a wide range of potentials with an average error of 140 mV.
