The distribution of antibiotic use and its association with antibiotic resistance

Olesen, S. W.; Barnett, M. L.; MacFadden, D. R.; Brownstein, J. S.; Hernandez-Diaz, S.; Lipsitch, M.; Grad, Y. H.

Abstract

Antibiotic use is a primary driver of antibiotic resistance. However, antibiotic use can be distributed in different ways in a population, and the association between the distribution of use and antibiotic resistance has not been explored. Here we tested the hypothesis that repeated use of antibiotics has a stronger association with population-wide antibiotic resistance than broadly- distributed, low-intensity use. First, we characterized the distribution of outpatient antibiotic use across US states, finding that antibiotic use is uneven and that repeated use of antibiotics makes up a minority of antibiotic use. Second, we compared antibiotic use with resistance for 72 pathogen-antibiotic combinations across states. Finally, having partitioned total use into extensive and intensive margins, we found that intense use had a weaker association with resistance than extensive use. If the use-resistance relationship is causal, these results suggest that reducing total use and selection intensity will require reducing broadly-distributed, low- intensity use.

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