OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatio-temporal model of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails based on the Bayesian model, and to analyze and identify the spatio-temporal pattern at a village scale.
METHODS: The data including the intensity and spatial distribution of live and infected snails from 2000 to 2006 and the village boundary were collected. The independent and interactive spatio-temporal models were established, and then the best fitness model was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of live and infected snails.
RESULTS: The interactive model of live snails and the independent model of infected snails were relative fitness models, and the models showed 95% CI (confidence interval) of the spatial and temporal coefficient included zero, and indicated that the spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected snails was not significant at a village scale.
CONCLUSION: There is no significant spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected mountainous snails at a village scale, and the furthermore study should be carried out at a small scale.
