This study aims to predict exercise adherence by examining from the standpoints of the exercise intention, the self-determination theory and the sport commitment model. Data were collected from 391 Korean sports centre members (teens: 5.4%, twenties: 15.1%, thirties: 25.1%, forties: 28.1% and ≥ fifties: 26.3%). Questionnaires assessed the exercise intention and sport commitment as well as autonomy, competence and relatedness. Exercise adherence was measured by electronic attendance system. Data were analysed using reliability testing, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis and binary classifier system. All variables except for cognitive commitment had significant predictive power for 3-month exercise adherence. In contrast, only basic psychological needs were found to have significant predictive power for 6-month exercise adherence. Further, autonomy (OR = 4.58) showing the strongest predictive power (classification accuracy = 86.4%). These findings imply that 'basic psychological needs' plays a more key role than 'exercise intention' in predicting exercise adherence. This study has implications that need to focus not only on enjoyment or competition but also on the autonomy, relatedness and competence pertaining to the basic psychological needs and to work to satisfy those needs and maintain motivation to continue regular exercise.
