ChunXiang Cao: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
Min Xu: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
ChaoYi Chang: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
Yong Xue: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
ShaoBo Zhong: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
LiQun Fang: 2Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing, 100071 China.
WuChun Cao: 2Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing, 100071 China.
Hao Zhang: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
MengXu Gao: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
QiSheng He: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
Jian Zhao: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
Wei Chen: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
Sheng Zheng: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
XiaoWen Li: 1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.
