Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?
Elizabeth Hunke, Richard Allard, Philippe Blain, Ed Blockley, Daniel Feltham, Thierry Fichefet, Gilles Garric, Robert Grumbine, Jean-François Lemieux, Till Rasmussen, Mads Ribergaard, Andrew Roberts, Axel Schweiger, Steffen Tietsche, Bruno Tremblay, Martin Vancoppenolle, Jinlun Zhang
Author Information
Elizabeth Hunke: MS-B216, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA. ORCID
Richard Allard: U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center, Stennis, MS USA.
Philippe Blain: Centre de prévision météorologique et environnementale du Canada, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC Canada.
Ed Blockley: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
Daniel Feltham: CPOM, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Thierry Fichefet: Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium.
Gilles Garric: Mercator Ocean International, Ramonville Saint Agne, France.
Robert Grumbine: National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD USA.
Jean-François Lemieux: Centre de prévision météorologique et environnementale du Canada, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC Canada.
Till Rasmussen: Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Mads Ribergaard: Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Andrew Roberts: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.
Axel Schweiger: Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.
Steffen Tietsche: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.
Bruno Tremblay: McGill University, Montréal, Canada.
Martin Vancoppenolle: Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
Jinlun Zhang: Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.
In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.
