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Nature communications
02 17, 2021;12 (1): 1090.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

Pierre Nouvellet, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nicholas F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Laura V Cooper, Helen Coupland, Zulma M Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra A Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D Eales, Sabine L van Elsland, Fabricia F Nascimento, Richard G FitzJohn, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, William D Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J Laydon, John A Lees, Tara Mangal, Thomas A Mellan, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Kris V Parag, Margarita Pons-Salort, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Steven Riley, H Juliette T Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela A C Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick G T Walker, Caroline E Walters, Haowei Wang, Oliver J Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K Whittles, Xiaoyue Xi, Neil M Ferguson, Christl A Donnelly
Author Information
  1. Pierre Nouvellet: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. pierre.nouvellet@sussex.ac.uk. ORCID
  2. Sangeeta Bhatia: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  3. Anne Cori: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  4. Kylie E C Ainslie: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  5. Marc Baguelin: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  6. Samir Bhatt: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  7. Adhiratha Boonyasiri: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  8. Nicholas F Brazeau: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  9. Lorenzo Cattarino: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  10. Laura V Cooper: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  11. Helen Coupland: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  12. Zulma M Cucunuba: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  13. Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  14. Amy Dighe: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  15. Bimandra A Djaafara: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  16. Ilaria Dorigatti: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  17. Oliver D Eales: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  18. Sabine L van Elsland: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  19. Fabricia F Nascimento: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  20. Richard G FitzJohn: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  21. Katy A M Gaythorpe: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  22. Lily Geidelberg: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  23. William D Green: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  24. Arran Hamlet: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  25. Katharina Hauck: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  26. Wes Hinsley: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  27. Natsuko Imai: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  28. Benjamin Jeffrey: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  29. Edward Knock: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  30. Daniel J Laydon: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  31. John A Lees: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  32. Tara Mangal: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  33. Thomas A Mellan: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  34. Gemma Nedjati-Gilani: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  35. Kris V Parag: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  36. Margarita Pons-Salort: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  37. Manon Ragonnet-Cronin: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  38. Steven Riley: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  39. H Juliette T Unwin: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  40. Robert Verity: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  41. Michaela A C Vollmer: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  42. Erik Volz: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  43. Patrick G T Walker: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  44. Caroline E Walters: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  45. Haowei Wang: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  46. Oliver J Watson: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  47. Charles Whittaker: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  48. Lilith K Whittles: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  49. Xiaoyue Xi: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK.
  50. Neil M Ferguson: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. ORCID
  51. Christl A Donnelly: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, UK. christl.donnelly@stats.ox.ac.uk. ORCID
PMID: 33597546 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

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Grants

  1. MC_PC_19012/Medical Research Council
  2. 219415/Wellcome Trust
  3. 200861/Z/16/Z/Wellcome Trust
  4. MR/J008761/1/Medical Research Council
  5. MR/R015600/1/Medical Research Council
  6. MR/R024855/1/Medical Research Council
  7. NIHR200908/Department of Health

MeSH Term

Algorithms
COVID-19
Communicable Disease Control
Global Health
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Journal Article Multicenter Study Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Article has an altmetric score of 158

Word Cloud

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