News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact.

Alexander M Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot J Müller, Raphael Schoenle
Author Information
  1. Alexander M Dietrich: University of Tuebingen, Nauklerstraße 50, 72074 Tuebingen, Germany.
  2. Keith Kuester: University of Bonn and CEPR, Adenauerallee 24-42, 53113 Bonn, Germany.
  3. Gernot J Müller: University of Tuebingen, CEPR and CESifo, Nauklerstraße 50, 72074 Tuebingen, Germany.
  4. Raphael Schoenle: Brandeis University, CEPR and CESifo, 415 South Street, 02454 Waltham, MA, USA.

Abstract

A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer's perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers' views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.

Keywords

References

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