Crop production response to soil moisture and groundwater depletion in the Nile Basin based on multi-source data.
Zemede M Nigatu, Dongming Fan, Wei You, Assefa M Melesse, Lun Pu, Xinchun Yang, Xiangyu Wan, Zhongshan Jiang
Author Information
Zemede M Nigatu: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; Geospatial Information Science (GIS) Department, WGCFNR, Hawassa University, Hawassa, PO Box 5, Ethiopia. Electronic address: nigatu@my.swjtu.edu.cn.
Dongming Fan: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China. Electronic address: dmfan@swjtu.edu.cn.
Wei You: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China. Electronic address: youwei@swjtu.edu.cn.
Assefa M Melesse: Institutes of Environment, Department of Earth and Environment, AHC-5-390, Florida International University, USA. Electronic address: melessea@fiu.edu.
Lun Pu: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China. Electronic address: pulun@my.swjtu.edu.cn.
Xinchun Yang: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China. Electronic address: xcyang@my.swjtu.edu.cn.
Xiangyu Wan: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China. Electronic address: wanxiangyu@my.swjtu.edu.cn.
Zhongshan Jiang: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China; Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan. Electronic address: jzshhh@my.swjtu.edu.cn.
Soil moisture (SM) and groundwater (GW) depletion triggered by anthropogenic and natural climate change are influencing food security via crop production per capita decrease in the Nile River Basin (NRB). However, to the best of our understanding, the causes and impact of SM and GW depletion have not been studied yet comprehensively in the NRB. In this study, GW is derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and SM was estimated using the Triple Collocation Analysis (TCA). SM/GW depletion causes were evaluated via the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and rainfall/temperature change analysis, whereas impact analysis focused on crop production per capita reduction (food insecurity) during SM depletion. The major findings of this study are 1) TCA analyzed SM show a decreasing trend (-0.06 mm/yr) in agricultural land while increasing (+0.21 mm/yr) in forest land, 2) LULC analysis indicated a vast increment of agricultural land (+9%) and bareland (+9%) although the decreasing pattern of forest (-1.5%) and shrubland (-6.9%) during 1990-2019; 3) the impact of SM depletion on crop production per capita caused food insecurity during a drought year, 4) agriculture drought indices and crop production per capita show high correlations (R = 0.86 to 0.60) demonstrated that Vegetation Supply Water Index (VSWI) could provide strategic warning of drought impacts on rainfed agricultural regions. In conclusion, SM and GW depletions are mainly caused by human-induced and climate change factors imposing food insecurity challenges in the NRB coupled with increasing temperature and excessive water extraction for irrigation. Therefore, it is highly recommended to rethink and reverse SM/GW depletion causing factors to sustain food security in NRB and similar basins.
