Ebola virus disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review.
Rebecca K Nash, Sangeeta Bhatia, Christian Morgenstern, Patrick Doohan, David Jorgensen, Kelly McCain, Ruth McCabe, Dariya Nikitin, Alpha Forna, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Joseph T Hicks, Richard J Sheppard, Tristan Naidoo, Sabine van Elsland, Cyril Geismar, Thomas Rawson, Sequoia Iris Leuba, Jack Wardle, Isobel Routledge, Keith Fraser, Pathogen Epidemiology Review Group, Natsuko Imai-Eaton, Anne Cori, H Juliette T Unwin
Author Information
Rebecca K Nash: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sangeeta Bhatia: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK; Modelling and Economics Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
Christian Morgenstern: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Patrick Doohan: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
David Jorgensen: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Kelly McCain: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Ruth McCabe: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Dariya Nikitin: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Alpha Forna: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Joseph T Hicks: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Richard J Sheppard: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Tristan Naidoo: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sabine van Elsland: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Cyril Geismar: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Thomas Rawson: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sequoia Iris Leuba: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jack Wardle: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Isobel Routledge: Institute of Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Keith Fraser: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Natsuko Imai-Eaton: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Anne Cori: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.
H Juliette T Unwin: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. Electronic address: juliette.unwin@bristol.ac.uk.
Ebola virus disease poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of Ebola virus disease transmission models and parameters published from database inception to July 7, 2023, from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted with a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable, as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random-effect estimates were 15·4 days (95% CI 13·2-17·5) for the serial interval, 8·5 days (7·7-9·2) for the incubation period, 9·3 days (8·5-10·1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay, and 13·0 days (10·4-15·7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar, albeit with narrower CIs. Case-fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. Although a substantial body of literature exists on Ebola virus disease models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the west African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus, which leaves a key gap in our knowledge regarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.
